College Football 2007 - Picking Apart The 10 Teams That Won College Football's BCS Bowl Lottery

By Ed Bagley

While the BCS Standings may have had a mess in determining which teams should play for college football's national championship, it turns out that Ohio State and Louisiana State may have been the best possible choice after all.

In analyzing the 10 teams that won this year's bowl lottery with the highest payouts for the 5 major BCS bowl games, I created a new system to evaluate the teams involved. Rather than add to the already flooded opinions about who should or should not have been chosen, I have decided to apply some cold, hard facts that are beyond dispute.

My basis is the actual NCAA regular season team statistics for the 5 main offensive and 5 main defensive categories. These are Scoring Offense, Total Offense, Rushing Offense, Passing Offense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Scoring Defense, Total Defense, Rushing Defense, Pass Defense and Pass Efficiency Defense. A numerical value (1 to 5) was then assigned for the 119 Division 1A schools. The Top 10 in each category got a "Great" rating of 5, the next 20 got a "Good" rating of 4, the next 59 an "Average" rating of 3, the next 20 a "Poor" rating of 2, and the bottom 10 a "Terrible" rating of 1.

The Great and Good ratings represent the top 25% of the schools, the Average rating represents the middle 50%, and the Poor and Terrible ratings represent the bottom 25% of the schools. Given this system, the best quality game (not necessarily the best game) during the bowl season may well be the Ohio State-Louisiana State (LSU) match-up in the Allstate BCS National Championship Game. Here is why:

1) A perfect score in the 5 defensive categories is 25 and Ohio State (11-1) fits the profile with a perfect 25 score. The Buckeyes lead the nation in 4 of the 5 categories: Scoring Defense, Total Defense, Pass Defense and Pass Efficiency Defense, and rank No. 3 in Rushing Defense. Ohio State is, in fact, the best defensive team in the country based on actual results.

2) LSU (11-2) is among the Top 10 teams in 3 defensive categories: No. 3 in Total Defense and Pass Efficiency Defense, and No. 9 in Pass Defense. The Tigers are Good in the other two categories for a total score of 23.

3) On offense neither team is really good. Ohio State is Good in 2 categories and Average in 3 others for a 17 total score, while LSU is Good in 3 categories and Average in 2 others for an 18 score.

4) Adding up their offensive and defensive totals, Ohio State scores 42 out of a perfect 50, and LSU scores 41. This should be a lower scoring defensive battle with all of the earmarks of a great national championship game going down to the final moments. Call it a toss-up.

The Rose Bowl pits Southern California (10-2) and Illinois (9-3) with a distinct advantage for Southern Cal (USC) because it is the only other team among the 10 BCS bowl contestants that has a perfect 25 score on the defensive side of the ball. USC, like Ohio State, is in the Top 10 nationally in all 5 defensive categories, ranking No. 2 in Total Defense and No. 4 in both Rushing Defense and Scoring Defense. Illinois is Good in 2 categories and Average in 3 others for a total of 17 out of 25.

Both USC and Illinois tie for the lowest total score with 15 among the 5 offensive categories. USC is only 1 of 2 teams to rate Average in every offensive category. Illinois is Great in Rushing Offense (No. 5 nationally) and Terrible in Passing Offense (No. 114 nationally).

The question is "Can USC's top-rated rush defense stop Illinois' top-rated rushing offense?" I think the Trojans can. USC has far more experience at this level than Illinois, and a great defense generally stops a great offense when the great offense meets better competition.

The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl should prove to be an interesting clash between Oklahoma (11-2) and West Virginia (10-2). Oklahoma scores out a little better on offense (21 to 18) and West Virginia scores a little better on defense (22 to 20). Oklahoma's total score is 41, the same as LSU's, and West Virginia's is 40. Another good contest.

The Oklahoma Sooners are Great in 4 categories: Scoring Offense (No. 3 nationally), Pass Efficiency Offense (No. 2 nationally), Scoring Defense (No. 9 nationally) and Rushing Defense (No. 8 nationally). The West Virginia Mountaineers are Great in 3 categories: Rushing Offense (No. 4 nationally), Total Defense (No. 4 nationally) and Scoring Defense (No. 7 nationally). West Virginia is Terrible in Passing Offense (No. 113 nationally).

Look for West Virginia to run, run, run and Oklahoma to use its great rushing defense to stop them. While Oklahoma is no Ohio State defensively, they bring much more experience to the table, having played in 3 national championship games in the past 7 years. The Sooners beat Florida State 13-2 for the national title in 2000, lost to LSU 21-14 in 2003 and lost to USC 55-19 in 2004. West Virginia has yet to play in a national championship game.

Oklahoma should win this game. The Sooners have to be smarting after last year's humiliating 43-42 loss to Boise State in last year's Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma returns to the same bowl game as last year's loss and has some unfinished business, like winning against a better team this year.

The FedEx Orange Bowl game between Virginia Tech (11-2) and Kansas (11-1) should also be interesting. Virginia Tech has the 3rd highest total defensive score (24 of 25) among the 10 bowl teams.

The Hokies are Great in Scoring Defense (No. 2 nationally), Pass Efficiency Defense (No. 4 nationally), Total Defense and Rushing Defense (both No. 5 nationally). Virginia Tech's offense is Average to Poor so the Hokies better be good on defense.

Kansas has the best offensive score (23 of 25) among the 10 bowl teams. The Jayhawks are Great in 3 categories: Scoring Offense (No. 2 nationally), Total Offense (No. 6 nationally) and Pass Efficiency Offense (No. 7 nationally).

Kansas is also Great in 3 defensive categories: Scoring Defense (No. 5 nationally), Rushing Defense (No. 7 nationally) and Pass Efficiency Defense (No. 10 nationally). The Jayhawks and the only team among the 10 bowl teams rated Great in 6 categories. Their loss to Missouri hurt a bunch; they just might send Virginia Tech home with a loss.

The Allstate Sugar Bowl game brings Hawaii (12-0) face-to-face with Georgia (10-2). On paper Hawaii has a much better offense, scoring Great in 4 categories: Scoring Offense and Passing Offense (both No. 1 nationally), Total Offense and Pass Efficiency Offense (both No. 3 nationally). The Warriors have Colt Brennan, a quarterback to be feared.

Hawaii's defense in not good but neither is Georgia's offense; the Bulldogs, like the USC Trojans, are Average across the board. Georgia's defense is better but its Pass Efficiency Defense is Average. Georgia has played much better competition than Hawaii and should win this game, but I have seen Colt Brennan pass, and he is THAT good.

Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley

Ed Bagley's Blog Publishes Original Articles with Analysis and Commentary on 5 Subjects: Sports, Movie Reviews, Lessons in Life, Jobs and Careers, and Internet Marketing. My intention is to inform, educate, delight and motivate you the reader.

Read my articles on "Want a Six-Figure Income Without Getting a College Degree of Any Kind? Here Is How", my 2-part series on "There Is No Huge Correlation Between Education and Income and Here Is Why" and "Who Earns the Most Based on Their Educational Level".

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